A civilização chinesa (e não nação), na visão de um think-tank marxista

TED: Martin Jacques: Understanding the rise of China


Comentário: Aborda a quesão ocidente x oriente de forma ímpar, brilhante. Vídeo em inglês, ainda sem legenda em português, que deverá estar disponível, creio, nos próximos dias/semanas.


About Martin Jacques: http://www.ted.com/speakers/martin_jacques.html


Martin Jacques is the author of "When China Rules the World," and a columnist for the Guardian and New Statesman. He was a co-founder of the think tank Demos.

Why you should listen to him:

Martin Jacques is the author of When China Rules the World: The Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western World. He is a visiting senior fellow at the London School of Economics, IDEAS, a centre for the study of international affairs, diplomacy and grand strategy, and a visiting research fellow at the LSE’s Asia Research Centre. He is a columnist for the Guardian and the New Statesman.

His interest in East Asia began in 1993 with a holiday in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia. After that, he found every reason or excuse he could find to spend time in the region, be it personal, for newspaper articles or television programs. In 1977, he became editor of Marxism Today, a post he held for fourteen years, transforming what was an obscure and dull journal into the most influential political publication in Britain, read and respected on the right and left alike.

In 1991, he closed Marxism Today and in 1994 became the deputy editor of the Independent newspaper, a post he held until 1996. In 1993 he co-founded the think-tank Demos.


Exibições: 281

Comentário de Oswaldo Conti-Bosso em 26 janeiro 2011 às 21:29


Martin Jacques spoke at Harvard University on 12th November 2009

Watch the program

Comentário de Oswaldo Conti-Bosso em 27 janeiro 2011 às 10:24



Book review: 'When China Rules the World' by Martin Jacques


By Seth Faison

Sunday, December 20, 2009


The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order

By Martin Jacques

Penguin. 550 pp. $29.95


Martin Jacques, a British news columnist, became fascinated by the manic modernization underway in China when he visited there in 1993. He saw construction cranes working round the clock, roads streaming with trucks and carts, and peasant women balancing wares on either end of a bamboo pole. The vibrant energy and evident willpower got Jacques musing: Would the economic boom follow the Western model? Or would China pursue modernity in its own way?

Jacques went for a holiday in Malaysia. One day, while he was out for a run on the beach, his eye chanced upon a dark and attractive woman. A 26-year-old lawyer, she was not an obvious match for a pink-skinned, pointy-headed, chronically unmarried Brit who was nearing 50. But the woman, Hari Veriah, who was born in Malaysia to Indian parents, was fearless and modern-minded, and her Asian perspective was like tinder to his spark.

As Veriah and Jacques spent time together, she challenged his assumptions and encouraged him to deepen his exploration of the East-vs.-West dynamic. His musings led to research. Trained in number-crunching and Marxist historical analysis and bolstered by extended sojourns in Asia, Jacques honed a convincing answer to his original question. For the better part of 15 years, with one tragic interruption, he dug and dug and then transformed his scholarly spadework into accessible, inviting prose.

The result is "When China Rules the World," a compelling and thought-provoking analysis of global trends that defies the common Western assumption that, to be fully modern, a nation must become democratic, financially transparent and legally accountable. Jacques argues persuasively that China is on track to take over as the world's dominant power and that, when it does, it will make the rules, on its own terms, with little regard for what came before.

China is growing at a tremendous rate. Yet it refuses to follow the Western model of establishing genuine elections, an independent judiciary and a freely convertible currency. In fact, its restrictive currency rules have made China the world's leading creditor, while the United States sinks ever deeper into debt. And while the United States sacrifices the lives of its soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Chinese make money in both countries without losing a drop of blood.

Jacques is a superb explainer of history and economics, tracing broad trends with insight and skill. He does not shy away from the considerable challenges China faces. Yet he glosses over Mao's terrors too easily. He stumbles badly when trying to describe what a new Chinese-led international order might look like, implausibly imagining a return of the old tributary system, where small neighboring states paid in gifts and gold to the reigning power: China. His theories about the significance of a Chinese "civilization" over a Chinese "nation" seem silly and misplaced.

Books about the future never get it right. But this one offers tasty meat to chew on. Its prime achievement is to identify and then annihilate what may be the greatest flaw in Western thinking today: the assumption that economic and political progress must follow the Western model. Like the Brits and the Romans before us, we Americans may be unable to see the end of empire until it is too late. Personally, I felt humbled by Jacques's insights. As a journalist who lived and breathed China for years, I felt sure that the Communist Party, following its loss of credibility at Tiananmen, would fall to ashes. During the boom of the 1990s, I knew that economic modernization would force Chinese institutions to become accountable and democratic. I was wrong again and again. My assumptions were out of date.

Still, one can't help wondering if China's trajectory, as unwavering as it may look now, may fizzle. Take, for instance, China's inability to accept or integrate outsiders -- Jacques calls it "the Middle Kingdom mentality." He explores it and China's prevalent racism in detail, for reasons that grew from painful experience.

Jacques and Veriah married and moved to Hong Kong, where she suffered an epileptic seizure and was hospitalized. She warned Jacques that the Chinese medical staff was treating her like a third-class citizen because of her dark skin and Indian ancestry. The next day she died. Jacques later determined that negligence by the hospital staff had killed her.

Left with their 1-year-old son, Jacques was devastated. It was two years before he could pick up a pen. When he did, his work was infused with a passion that honors the woman who brought him to rethink his approach to China. Her death stands out as a symbol of China's dark limitations and leaves us with questions about its future.

Seth Faison is the author of "South of the Clouds: Exploring the Hidden Realms of China."
Comentário de Oswaldo Conti-Bosso em 27 janeiro 2011 às 10:26

New York Time - Review of Books

Waking Dragon


Published: December 31, 2009

Historians may someday debate whether the financial crisis that began a year ago is most notable for how much damage it did to the United States, or how little it inflicted on the world’s major rising power, China. Helped by huge state intervention and buoyant optimism almost surreally undiminished by the crisis of confidence across the Pacific, China has had a very good downturn. It is closing the gap with the world’s most developed economies faster than anticipated and could overtake Japan as the world’s second-largest economy when the final figures for last year are tallied.

Skip to next paragraph

Bobby Yip/Reuters


The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order

By Martin Jacques

Illustrated. 550 pp. The Penguin Press. $29.95


Excerpt: ‘When China Rules the World’ (December 4, 2009)

Times Topics: China

Michiko Kakutani’s Review of ‘When China Rules the World’ (December 4, 2009)

China’s already rapid emergence is changing many things, from diplomatic alliances in Africa to the status of the dollar as the world’s favorite currency. It may also open minds to a provocative thesis that, until a short time ago, might have been dismissed as breathless hyperbole.

In “When China Rules the World,” Martin Jacques, a columnist for The Guardian of London and a visiting scholar at the London School of Economics, argues that China will not just displace the United States as the major superpower. It will also marginalize the West in history and upend our core notions of what it means to be modern.

This bold assertion, he acknowledges, rests on the assumption that nothing will derail the political stability and economic dynamism China enjoys today. It is not clear that even the most senior leaders in Beijing share Jacques’s faith in that forecast. But the future is unknowable, and his extrapolations are, if not provable, at least plausible. The strength of his book lies in his exhaustive, incisive exploration of possibilities that many people have barely begun to contemplate about a future dominated by China.

Much of the journalism and many of the best-selling books on China treat the country’s rise as an economic phenomenon. It is presented as a developing country, albeit the biggest one, that has opened its doors to the West, allowed a Western-style market economy to flourish and exported goods to wealthy consumers abroad. Those things are true. But Jacques argues that the focus on the economic side of the story has lulled the West into a false sense of security. “The mainstream Western attitude has held that, in its fundamentals, the world will be relatively little changed by China’s rise,” he writes. Rather, he says, “the rise of China will change the world in the most profound ways.”

Unlike Britain, the United States or Germany at various times during the past 200 years, China is not emerging on the world stage as a new, powerful nation-state. It is, instead, as one Chinese writer put it, regaining “lost international status,” becoming the first ancient civilization to re-emerge and reclaim its position as a dominant power.

China was the wealthiest, most unified and most technologically advanced civilization until well into the 18th century, Jacques points out. It lost that position some 200 years ago as the industrial revolution got under way in Europe. Scholars once viewed China as having crippling social, cultural and political defects that underscored the superiority of the West. But given the speed and strength of China’s recent growth, those defects have begun to look more like anomalies. It is the West’s run of dominance, not China’s period of malaise, that could end up being the fluke, Jacques writes.

Skyscrapers and stock markets in China look like those in the West, of course. But Jacques argues that the country’s cultural core resembles ancient China far more than it does modern Europe or the United States. It is accumulating wealth much faster than it is absorbing foreign ideas. The result, he says, is that China is nearly certain to become a major power in its own mold, not the “status quo” power accepting of Western norms and institutions that many policy makers in Washington hope and expect it will be.

(Page 2 of 2)

The enduring loyalty of its enormous diaspora and even the global popularity of Chinese food testify to the appeal of Chinese culture abroad. But the pervasiveness of a country’s culture depends only partly on its appeal. It also depends on strength, which China is acquiring, and scale, which it already has.Skip to next paragraph

Many Chinese have learned English to compete better in the world economy. But the future, Jacques writes, belongs to Mandarin. It is the national tongue of one in five people in the world, and it is rapidly edging out English as the preferred second language in Asia. In the early days of the Web, the language of cyberspace was English. But the explosion of Internet use in China will tip the balance to Mandarin before long.

China has pioneered its own style of economic production. If the Japanese became known for obsessive quality and just-in-time inventory controls, China has developed a reputation for speed and flexibility. Its companies mix and match suppliers; buy, copy or steal ideas; and churn out products just good enough and just cheap enough to sell. Many multinationals have trouble competing, even when they use Chinese labor.

China also manages its economy in its own fashion. Its public and private sectors blur together in ways that befuddle Americans accustomed to strict separation of government and business. Ferociously competitive entrepreneurs thrive alongside a “hyperactive and omnipresent” state that has never ceded its right to intervene.

As China finds its own path economically, it is unlikely to look west for political advice, Jacques suggests. Its ruling Communist Party, having largely set aside its socialist ideology, has become a modern version of an imperial dynasty. China’s Communist leaders have flirted with reviving Confucianist thought, positioning themselves as protectors of Chinese unity, the state’s traditional role. Many Chinese see that mission as sacred. Jacques argues, credibly, that most Chinese will back their leaders, with or without democratic reforms, as long as the country keeps getting stronger.

So how might the world work under Pax Sinica? Jacques ventures some fascinating guesses: The United States often promotes democracy within nations. China insists on democracy among nations. If the power of countries in the international arena were determined by how many people they represent, China would have more clout than all the Western democracies combined.

Jacques has lived in China, and he writes about his travels there. But it seems clear that he has developed his views from reading books and newspapers (a voluminous quantity of them, to be sure) rather than through any immediate experiences in China or by getting to know its people.

Possibly as a result, he dwells little on the everyday turmoil of Chinese life — the mélange of cultures in its cities, the violent uprisings of its peasants, the factional struggles in its leadership, the pollution in the air, the gridlock on the streets, the bubbly economy and the corrupt bureaucracy. Others have and will be more successful at conveying the human struggle for China’s future.

But the fact that China looks messier in practice than in books does not invalidate Jacques’s thesis. He has written a work of considerable erudition, with provocative and often counterintuitive speculations about one of the most important questions facing the world today. And he could hardly have known, when he set out to write it, that events would so accelerate the trends he was analyzing.

Joseph Kahn is a former Beijing bureau chief and now a deputy foreign editor of The Times.

Comentário de Oswaldo Conti-Bosso em 27 janeiro 2011 às 10:45

A China dominará o mundo?  

Dani Rodrik, professor de Economia Política na Escola de Administração Pública John F. Kennedy da Universidade Harvard. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2009.
A China ainda é um país pobre, mesmo assim projeta-se que sua economia ultrapasse a dos EUA em tamanho nas próximas duas décadas Dani Rodrik

Trinta anos atrás, a China tinha uma presença minúscula na economia global e pouca influência fora das suas fronteiras, exceto por alguns países com os quais mantinha relações políticas e militares próximas. Hoje, o país é uma notável potência econômica: maior centro fabril do mundo, destacado investidor mundo afora, da África à América Latina, e, cada vez mais, uma importante fonte de pesquisa e desenvolvimento.
O governo chinês está sentado sobre um nível espantoso de reservas cambiais, superior a US$ 2 trilhões. Não existe um único setor em algum lugar no mundo que já não tenha sentido o impacto da China, seja como um fornecedor de baixo custo, ou, de forma mais ameaçadora, como um concorrente formidável.
A China ainda é um país pobre. Apesar de a renda média ter aumentado muito rapidamente nas décadas recentes, ela ainda se situa entre 1/7 e 1/8 dos níveis nos EUA, mais baixo que o da Turquia ou Colômbia. Enquanto a China litorânea e suas metrópoles mais importantes exibem riqueza formidável, extensas faixas da China Ocidental continuam atoladas na pobreza. Apesar disso, projeta-se que a economia da China ultrapasse a dos EUA em tamanho nas próximas duas décadas.
Enquanto isso, os EUA, a única superpotência econômica do mundo até recentemente, permanecem um gigante diminuído. O país se vê humilhado por seus fiascos em política exterior e por uma descomunal crise financeira. Sua credibilidade depois da desastrosa invasão do Iraque está no seu nível histórico mais baixo, apesar da simpatia global pelo presidente Barack Obama, e seu modelo econômico está em pedaços. O outrora todo-poderoso dólar cambaleia à mercê da China e dos países ricos em petróleo.
Todos esses elementos levam a perguntar se a China acabará substituindo os EUA como o poder hegemônico do mundo, o ditador e fiscalizador de regras do mundo. Num livro novo fascinante, intitulado de forma esclarecedora "When China Rules the World" (Quando a China dominar o mundo), o intelectual e jornalista britânico Martin Jacques é contundente: se você pensa que a China será integrada suavemente num sistema mundial liberal, capitalista e democrático, argumenta Jacques, prepare-se para uma grande surpresa. A China não só será a próxima superpotência econômica, como também a ordem mundial que ela construirá parecerá muito diferente daquela que tivemos sob a liderança dos EUA.
Americanos e europeus presumem displicentemente que a China se tornará mais parecida com eles à medida que sua economia se desenvolver e sua população ficar mais rica. Isso é uma miragem, diz Jacques. Os chineses e seu governo estão ligados a um conceito diferente de sociedade e de regime: baseado em comunidade, em vez de individualista, centralizado no Estado, em vez de liberal, autoritário em lugar de democrático. A China tem 2 mil anos de história como uma civilização distinta, aos quais pode recorrer para se fortalecer. Ela não se curvará simplesmente aos valores e instituições do Ocidente.
Uma ordem mundial centrada na China refletirá valores chineses em vez de ocidentais, argumenta Jacques. Pequim eclipsará Nova York, o renminbi substituirá o dólar, o mandarim assumirá o lugar do inglês, e os alunos em todo o mundo aprenderão sobre as viagens de descobrimento de Zheng He ao longo da costa Oriental da África, em vez de aprenderem sobre Vasco da Gama ou Cristóvão Colombo.
Serão coisas do passado o evangelismo dos mercados e a democracia. É muito menos provável que a China interfira nos assuntos internos de Estados soberanos. Em troca, porém, ela exigirá que países menores e menos poderosos reconheçam explicitamente a primazia chinesa (exatamente como nos sistemas tributários de antigamente).
Antes que algo dessa natureza venha a ocorrer, contudo, a China deverá continuar o seu veloz crescimento econômico e manter sua coesão social e união política. Nada disso está garantido. Por baixo do possante dínamo econômico da China encontram-se profundas tensões, desigualdades e rachaduras que poderão até arruinar uma progressão tranquila rumo à hegemonia global. Ao longo da sua longa história, forças centrífugas muitas vezes empurraram o país na direção da desordem e da desintegração.
A estabilidade da China depende criticamente da capacidade do governo de distribuir ganhos econômicos contínuos à vasta maioria da população. A China é o único país do mundo onde qualquer coisa abaixo de 8% de crescimento ano após ano é considerado perigoso porque o fato poderia desencadear inquietação social. A maioria do resto do mundo apenas sonha com crescimento àquela taxa, o que deixa entrever muito sobre a fragilidade subjacente do sistema chinês.
A natureza autoritária do regime político está no núcleo dessa fragilidade. Ele só permite a repressão quando o governo enfrenta protestos e oposição fora dos canais estabelecidos.
O problema é que ficará cada vez mais difícil para a China manter o tipo de crescimento que experimentou nos anos recentes. O crescimento do país atualmente se apoia numa moeda subvalorizada e num enorme superávit na balança comercial. Isso é insustentável e, cedo ou tarde, precipitará um confronto de grandes proporções com os EUA (e a Europa). Não há formas fáceis de contornar esse dilema. A China provavelmente precisará se conformar com crescimento mais baixo.
Se a China superar esses obstáculos e realmente acabar se tornando a potência econômica predominante do mundo, a globalização deverá, certamente, assumir as características chinesas. Assim, a democracia e os direitos humanos provavelmente perderão a sua atratividade como normas mundiais. Esse é o lado negativo.
O lado positivo é que uma ordem global chinesa mostrará maior respeito por soberania nacional e mais tolerância por diversidade nacional. Haverá maior espaço para experimentação com diferentes modelos econômicos.

Dani Rodrik, professor de Economia Política na Escola de Administração Pública John F. Kennedy da Universidade Harvard. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2009.

Comentário de Oswaldo Conti-Bosso em 27 janeiro 2011 às 15:18


File:Ming Emperor Xuande playing Golf.jpg

Chineses alega que inventaram


Chinese 'invented golf 1,000 years ago'



By Paul Kelbie, Scotland Correspondent

Thursday, 12 January 2006  

The Dutch talk of a 13th-century sport called "colf"; the French say they first had the idea with "palle-mail" in the 1400s; but it is the Scots who have been most widely credited with having invented the game of golf.


Yesterday, however, another country laid claim to the game. According to Professor Ling Hongling of Lanzhou University, the Chinese were playing golf 1,000 years ago. He says he has found a reference to a game called chuiwan - chui meaning to hit and wan meaning ball. Players used 10 clubs, including a cuanbang (equivalent to a driver today) and a shaobang (a three wood or spoon). Royalty inlaid their clubs with jade, edged them with gold and decorated the shafts elaborately.



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