EUA passa Alemanha na produção energia eólica, assim com fez com o Brasil, no etanol, anos atrás

Caros Navegantes,

Adicionei um comentário no post do Ronaldo Bicalho:
Energia eólica: a experiência espanhola, que reproduzo aqui.


Caro Ronaldo,
Muito bom sua analise e entrevista com Professor Francisco Javier.
Gostaria de contribuir com seu artigo, fazendo algumas colocações e pequena pesquisa que fiz na rede sobre dados e idéias na área. Na semana passado li no site da revista The Economist (Renewable energy: Air force one) sobre energia eólica e para surpresa, os EUA ultrapassou em capacidade instalada a Alemanha. Enquanto o mundo cresceu no ano passado em energia eólica a taxa de 29%, nos EUA a taxa foi acima de 50%, adicionou 8,4GWh, chegando a 25GW (ver grafico acima).

Interessante a gente observar que este fato já ocorreu nesta década em outra área de energia renovável, que nos afeta diretamente, na produção de ethanol. Os EUA nos ultrapassaram na produção de ethanol, com os fortes subsídios ao milho deles. Enquando nós nos vangloriavamos que somos pioneiros, o que é fato, e que temos um potencial futuro infinitamente maior que os deles, eles agiram na sudina e ligeiro, e faturam hoje, em poucos anos a produção do etanol do milho ulrapasou a nossa da cana de açucar. Lembro ter feito uma observação num artigo do Nassif do ano passado, bem antes da crise ser detonada, que os gringos não irial abrir mão do subsidio ao ethanol deles. Depois do debláquê então, é esperar para ver.

Esse gráfico abaixo mostra a capacidade mundial de energia eólica instalada até 2007 WWEA)


A capacidade instalada hoje de energia eólica no mundo é de 1,5%, em relação ao total, mas a capacidade insalada na última década cresceu a taxa média de 30% ao ano. Só a China cresceu nos últimos dois anos, a taxa de 100%. Estima-se que o setor tem um enorme potencial de crecimento nas próximas duas décadas. Mas Stefan Gsänger, Secretário da WWEA, chama atenção para o relatório da IEA-Global Energy Revolution, ele alerta que continua subestimado o potencial de energia renovável que o setor pode desenvolver, ver artigo em inlês: Bonn (WWEA) – The International Energy Agency -IEA.

Os principais produtores de tecnonogia eólica hoje são: Dinamarca, Alemanha, Espanha, China e USA. E pelo que entendi, não estamos nem entre os 20 maiores consumidores de energia eólica no mundo. Nossa estratégia de quase visão única e limitada, visão de tiro único, definida pelos assessores de tecnologia do Presidente Lula, colocando-o, como caixeiro viajante do etanol.

Aqui os dados sobre a queda de preços pela metada: Os custos de investimento na produção por kwh de energia cairam mais da metade na última década e meia (1990-2004), de 0,80 centes de euro , para 0,38 centes de euro por kwh, devido aos avanços tecnológico e aumento da capacidade instalada.
Ver Relatório: Wind Power Report- Jan-2009, páginas 34/35/36 de 195, não consegui colocar o gráfico do relatório aqui, está em pdf, e Wind energy efficiency-2005

Between 1990 and 2004, the German ISET (Institut für Solare Energieversorgungstechnik)
reported a mean annual cost reduction of 4.8 percent. The investment costs to produce one
kWh per year dropped from 0.80 to 0.38 Euro-Cent. (0.38 Cents is not the cost of energy but
the cost of installation divided by the annual generation),......

O Brasil e os brasileiros, precisamos definir nosso projeto nacional de desenvolvimento também nessa área.

Sds,

Exibições: 2872

Comentário de Oswaldo Conti-Bosso em 9 fevereiro 2009 às 17:41
Windpower Monthly, a print magazine, includes a special focus topic in every issue. A commentary on this month's focus, written specifically for the Windpower Monthly web site, appears below.

To get the full story, sign up now for a print subscription.

February 2009
Focus this month
Opportunity knocks in troubled times
Just about everybody in the wind power market is feeling pain as money for new projects becomes a commodity in short supply. Even the booming wind sector is not going unscathed in the global economic downturn. A slowdown in the US wind turbine market this year has so far cost nearly 650 jobs in rotor blade manufacture and nearly 400 in tower fabrication across six companies. More job losses are expected.

On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, wind equipment suppliers in Denmark, representing nearly 40% of global wind industry revenues, say delays in projects require that the workforce be slimmed. Rotor blade maker LM is laying off 450 workers out of 2200 and Denmark' s two big turbine producers, Vestas and Siemens Wind Power, have largely put a stop to recruitment.

Behind the scenes, however, lies a widespread expectation within the Danish industry that for wind power the downturn is only temporary—despite everything there have been no cancelled orders. Birger Madsen from BTM Consult, a respected industry observer over three decades, notes positive aspects of a cooling market: a broad fall in wind turbine prices made possible by cheaper raw materials and delayed orders freeing up turbine supply. Bottlenecks in delivery of major components, such as bearings and gearboxes, are likely to dissipate.

Given such prospects, at least some investors continue to bet on wind, as several reports in this month's issue of Windpower Monthly make clear. From the institutional side, GE Energy Financial Services is still "selectively considering" new investments in wind power, says the company' s Andy Katell. Most enthusiasm, however, is surprisingly being shown by smaller scale investors. "Actually it's not too bad, because most of the financial firms out there that were doing the bigger projects are now stating publicly that smaller is better. It spreads out their risk a little bit more," says Ken Valley president of Minneapolis-based Midwest Wind Finance.

"When it comes to financing projects, there is still plenty of money available as long as the project clearly can show that it is a safe investment," he continues. "Really there have been more positives than negatives because people are now interested in doing smaller."
His views are shared by Ed Einowski, a partner with legal firm Stoel Rives, which has specialised in wind power development transactions. He believes a huge amount of money is sitting on the sidelines as investors take a wait and see attitude regarding the promise of new energy policies under the administration of President Barack Obama. "We could see in the second and third quarter the activity picking up to very substantial levels again," he says.

Indeed, is far from all gloom and doom, even in America. Utility giant Xcel Energy has carved out 700 MW of wind in a recent request for proposals for new generation for its Colorado customers, to be installed between now and 2015 and in Canada, serious efforts are being made to create a transmission system that also caters for wind power. Back in Europe, the British energy regulator is moving forward with the tendering process for wires to bring power ashore from offshore wind plant and German utilities continue to vacuum up offshore wind projects, with still more major investments just made. In India, a subsidiary of turbine manufacturer Suzlon is gearing up to develop up to 1500 MW of wind projects in the state of Gujarat. You'll find all these stories—and more good news besides—in the just published issue of Windpower Monthly.

If the much discussed "green revolution" is to set the wheels of broad economic recovery in motion, however, government backed economic stimulus packages must contain provisions targeted directly at building out the needed infrastructure for renewable energy growth. In Europe, the commitment by governments to 20% energy from renewables by 2020 across the EU gives them no other choice. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama -- who on the way to his inauguration last month stopped by a factory for wind turbine bolts to demonstrate support for renewables -- has voiced similar US commitment. Wind, like nearly every other economic sector, has taken some heavy punches, but with supporters like Obama and heads of European governments in its corner it is poised to spring back faster than most.

Access in-depth coverage of every aspect of the global wind industry with a subscription to Windpower Monthly. Request that it be started with the February issue, while stocks last.

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