Fortune Magazine: "8 previsões realmente assustadoras"

[Conti-Bosso, José Oswaldo]

"Fortune conversou com 8 gurus experts do mercado financeiro, o que eles disseram sobre o futuro assustou: Dow jones a 4 mil pontos. Falta de alimentos, bolha na divida do tesouro americano". (Dow 4,000. Food shortages. A bubble in Treasury notes. Fortune spoke to eight of the market's sharpest thinkers and what they had to say about the future is frightening).
Fortune Magazine: 8 really, really scary predictions

Nouriel Roubini : (...) Things are going to be awful for everyday people. U.S. GDP growth is going to be negative through the end of 2009. And the recovery in 2010 and 2011, if there is one, is going to be so weak - with a growth rate of 1% to 1.5% - that it's going to feel like a recession. I see the unemployment rate peaking at around 9% by 2010. The value of homes has already fallen 25%. In my view, home prices are going to fall by another 15% before bottoming out in 2010.
(as coisas vão ficar muito ruim para todas as pessoas. PIB dos EUA será negativo em 2009 e vai ter recuperação lenta em 2010 e 2011, se tiver crescimento, entre 15 a 1,5%, ...)

Robert Shiller: (...)What I'm worried about right now is that our confidence has been hurt, and that's difficult to restore. No matter what we do, we're trying to deal with a psychological phenomenon.

(O que estou apreensivo agora é p fato da nossa confidência ter sido machucada, e isso é difícil de reconstruir.Não importa o que ós façamos, nós estamos enfrentando um fenomeno psicológico).

Jim Rogers: (...) I cannot imagine why anybody would give money to the U.S. government for 30 years for less than a 4% yield. I certainly wouldn't
(Eu não posso imaginar como alguém pode emprestar dinheiro para os EUA por 30 anos a juros de 4% ao ano. Eu certamente não farei)
.......


Sds,

[Conti-Bosso, José Oswaldo]

A primeira vez que leio um economista de peso no tio sam defender concordata das montadoras de carros americanas.

Financial Times
Chapter 11 is the right road for US carmakers
By Joseph Stiglitz

Published: December 11 2008 20:02
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1a2e2042-c79f-11dd-b611-000077b07658.html

"The debate about whether or not to bail out the Big Three carmakers has been mischaracterised. It has been described as a package to help the undeserving dinosaurs of Detroit. In fact, a plan to bail out the carmakers would benefit shareholders and bondholders as much as anybody else. These are not the people that need help right now. In fact they contributed to the problem........